So yesterday, July 13th 2023, SAG Struck against the AMPTP joining the WGA in a historic labor strike. Now this strike seemed inevetible after the backlash to the WGA President Fran Dreshers video saying how swimmingly the negotiations were going, and especially after the comically ridiculous DEADLINE article, “Hollywood Studios’ WGA Strike Endgame Is To Let Writers Go Broke Before Resuming Talks In Fall.” (And no I don’t think the AMPTP planted this).

My big question is what this will do to the future of the industry.

Having lived through the 1990’s Commercial SAG Strike and then the threat of the Writer’s strike that basically completely killed the commercial production industry as it was in Southern California. I went from being able to work 365 days a year to barely being able to get work practically overnight, and that was when I left commercial production and got into non-union editing.

Now the Unions are absolutely right that they deserve to get the streaming numbers so they can see what residuals they are owed, but honestly I am not sure that they studios even understand their streaming numbers, or they would tout them at least on some shows! You don’t think Apple would want to tout how many people are watching Ted Lasso? Or Netflix on Stranger Things?

And the AI thing is certainly being blown out of proportion at least where the technology is right now, as AI can’t currently replace anyone. And before the next contract in 3 years it is certainly not going to be able to replace either writers or actors. And I really don’t get the completely different statements on it from AMPTP and SAG. The AMPTP says that they are protecting digital likenesses and requiring consent, while SAG says that they will take background performers likenesses and own them forever. And the Studios need to realize they can’t keep actors likenesses forever in any circumstances. Still I think something can be something worked out, but yes you can bet than in the future background performances will often be digital, just like crowds have been with Massive from WETA since Lord of the Ring, but if they are based on a performers likeness that performer needs to be paid and credited, no matter what.

Yes eventually Teamsters will be replaced by self driving trucks. I mean Teamsters don’t even help load and unload the trucks they drive, so if you could have a self driving truck, why wouldn’t the studios do that?

But replacing an actor, technology wise we really are not there yet. How much money did they spend on Indiana Jones The Dial of Destiny to de-age Harrison Ford and it was no where near there for me.

And as for Artificial Intelligence writing scripts, the studio does own the scripts they have purchased for writers, so some day they will want to use them to train AI, as they own them. And writers are terrified of that, but we are certainly not there, and since anything that AI was to create can’t be copywrited, it would’t be in the studios interests to use it, if they can’t copywrite it. And even then it is not possible now. People think AI is much more powerful than it is, and sure it has made huge strides recently, but it is not going to replace crew members anytime soon.

But this stuff is academic, because the scary part is what happens to the industry going forward. The writers demands of so many more writers on every show and being paid to learn their show running/producing duties would certainly cost a lot more. And the studios and especially streamers are currently losing so much money (oh but the CEO’s are making so much money, but so are all CEO’s in all industries) that when production does come back it is going to be at a much lower level. Now I think the TV networks and their streaming services will survive, and maybe the commercial based streamers, but how will Netflix survive if it has a lot less shows? People won’t want to pay more for less, and they will likely lose subscribers, which will mean less money and less shows. And how can Amazon afford to make such expensive and terrible shows as Lord of the Rings and Citadel (what a piece of shit)?

And any of that means less work for not just the Writers and Actors, but for all the other film workers. The IATSE members are the ones really getting screwed here. They are not even striking and can’t even work.

The Industry has never recovered from COVID, and everyone is hurting, and now they going to be hurting for longer and I find it likely that many workers will not have to go back to after these strikes.

I even wonder if some rental service like Blockbuster will stage a comeback. I mean people like being able to think of a movie and see it instantly, but it just hasn’t happened with streamers. And when you see a streamer like Paramount+ or Disney+ you expect that if you can think of a movie form them it will be there, but that just isn’t the case. They make more money by selling the rights to different companies for exclusive windows. And I know you can rent movies from Apple and Amazon, but the depth of catalogue that was available on DVD is just not available, so it makes me wonder if Netflix made a mistake killing their disc based service, because their will never be a streaming service that has all the movies there were on rental dvd’s.

The strike is not just going to hurt people right now, but likely for a long time to come. And so many people are likely to not having jobs going forward. The Strikes are trying to help low and mid level writers and actors, but there is a huge chance that it will in fact mean a lot less people having work in the future, and that will mean that the high level writers and actors have work, but less low and mid level people will have opportunities to work.

I hope I am wrong, but I think it likely that the industry will never be the same again.